Conflict, Cooperation, and Relative Water Scarcity: Evidence from Post-Soviet Central Asia

How do countries that share cross-border rivers respond to periods of abnormally low water availability? This article argues that understanding whether countries react cooperatively or conflictually to within-basin shortages is just as important as identifying the influence of cross-basin differences in absolute availability. To study the effects of within-basin, relative scarcity, the article focuses on the case of two major cross-boundary rivers in post-Soviet Central Asia. Using original data on cooperative and conflictual interactions among these countries over the issue of water management, the empirical analysis demonstrates that relative water scarcity is associated with an increased likelihood of cooperative interactions, but is not consistently related to the occurrence of conflictual interactions. By demonstrating that country behavior changes in response to short-term water shortages, these findings underscore the need to consider the effects of relative water scarcity on interstate relations among river-sharing countries. Securing access to international sources of fresh water, such as cross-boundary rivers, is a central concern for many countries. Each of the 276 international rivers in the world represents an unavoidable point of contact between countries and, consequently, has the potential for causing tension.1 This potential increases dramatically when water is in short supply. At such times, ‘normal’ allocations among countries may become difficult or impossible to maintain. How do countries respond to conditions of water scarcity? There are a range of theoretical answers to these questions, but they tend to cluster in one of two distinct camps. On the one hand, proponents of the “water wars” hypothesis argue that countries will fight for their right to access water. Since water resources are limited, obtaining them is vital to country survival and therefore warrants conflict-generating behavior. On the other hand, supports of what I